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These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.
For 12/12/2008:
--------------------$INDU--------$SPX---------$COMPQ
Monthly Momentum----Negative(OS)-Negative(OS)-Negative (OS)
Weekly Momentum-----Positive-----Positive-----Positive
Daily Momentum------Negative-----Negative-----Negative
(OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 1,000,000 shares.
BIV
BLV
BND
CMF
EDV
EEV
FXP
FXY
GBF
GKD
IEF
IPE
ITE
JYN
LAG
MYY
PHB
PLW
PSQ
PVI
QID
REW
RRZ
RSW
SDK
SDP
SFK
SHY
SMN
SSG
SSK
TDX
TIP
TLH
TLO
TLT
U.S. equity markets basically rolled over on news of potential failure of an automaker bailout plan and continued bad retail and employment news. We will get more retail news today, but the Senate failure to obtain a bailout agreement already has foreign markets in shock. The only issues that screened effectively for bullish reversals were the ultra-short funds (QID, MYY) and both ended up testing well with the neural net screens.
---------Value/Price est.--7 day ATR---%( 7 day ATR)/Close
Note (O): optionable
*Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average volume basis.
MYY 2.92/1 69.6%--1.00----4.89---------5.62
QID 2.04/1 56.3%--1.00----6.82---------9.62
We are probably facing another test of previous lows as we head into next week. The reaction to bailout failure is going to be emotional and we as traders know how to deal with that. We widen our stops with ATR adjustments, we adjust our position sizes, and we only trade what we see. There are future set-ups in other stocks and sectors that will appear once this little earthquake passes by. Position sizes need to be monitored and adjusted. Trades will begin to appear soon enough.
Take care,
DBB
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I believe you are probably the best out of the literal hundreds of traders that I have witnessed.
