These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.
For 12/19/2008:
-------------------$INDU---------$SPX----------$COMPQ
Monthly Momentum---Negative(OS)-Negative(OS)--Negative(OS)
Weekly Momentum---Positive------Positive------Positive
Daily Momentum----Negative------Negative------Negative
(OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 100,000 shares.
DOG
DUG
DXD
EEV
EFU
PSQ
QID
SH
SRS
UUP
XLU
U.S. equity markets simply really just floundered yesterday as GE provided disappointing guidance and S&P downgraded GE paper. Energy prices also slumped badly. Virtually every ultra-short (BGZ, DOG, DUG, DZZ, EFU, ERY,PSQ, SRS, UUP) rallied, as did hospitals (UHS), biotech meds (MDCO), and computer services (SINT, SYNA). Sadly because of the continued problems modeling gaps in the ETFs, none of those met the criteria, though one should monitor UUP, DOG, and DUG as the continuing oil price collapse may bring short-term intra day opportunities.
-----Value/Price est. 7 day ATR %( 7 day ATR)/Close
Note (O): optionable
*Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average volume basis.
Nothing today.
Let us be clear, now consumer products concerns like MO are hitting multiyear 0.618 retracement lows. Patience will be required to wait for set ups, but patience is what saves trading capital. We could be very near a turning point in the next few weeks, but only time will tell. Be vigilant and do research.
Take care,
DBB
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I believe you are probably the best out of the literal hundreds of traders that I have witnessed.
