These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.
For 01/21/2009:
-------------------$INDU---------$SPX----------$COMPQ
Monthly Momentum---Negative(OS)--Negative(OS)--Negative(OS)
Weekly Momentum----Negative------Negative------Negative
Daily Momentum-----Negative(OS)--Negative(OS)--Negative
(OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 100,000 shares.
DBV
IAU
IDU
IGW
IJJ
ITB
IXC
PHO
PWB
RJA
RWX
SLV
VDC
VOT
VPU
XHB
XLU
XRF
U.S. equity markets retreated on Tuesday as further worries about major banks destroyed any hope of the typical inaugural rally. There were the fewest bullish reversals I have seen since late September/early October 2008, and the only ones with any significance were the ultra-short ETFs MZZ, RWM, SH, SRS, TWM, TZA. These ultra-short funds should not be held overnight because of the influence of hedge fund money distorting the inverse index relationships. It is not recommended to swing trade these. The only way to really trade them is in the intra-day environment.
-------Value/Price est. 7 day ATR %( 7 day ATR)/Close
Note (O): optionable
*Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average volume basis.
Nothing today.
We are headed, I am afraid, at least for the time being, for another test of the bear market lows. Because the financials are sick, if not terminally ill, we are likely going to see them lead the market, and in their condition, that leadership will be to the downside in all likelihood. The only thing that saves this market is its extreme oversold condition on a monthly basis. That does not mean, that it cannot move lower. We will have to be patient and see if double bottoms or extreme retracement lows hold. Nothing, not even biotech stocks, may be immune from this sell-off.
Take care,
DBB
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I believe you are probably the best out of the literal hundreds of traders that I have witnessed.
