These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.
For 01/21/2009:
------------------$INDU----------$SPX---------$COMPQ
Monthly Momentum--Negative(OS)---Negative(OS)-Negative (OS)
Weekly Momentum---Negative-------Negative-----Negative
Daily Momentum----Negative(OS)---Negative(OS)-Negative
(OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 10,000,000 shares.
DDM
DIA
DIG
EEM
EFA
EWT
EWZ
IWM
IYR
OIH
QQQQ
SPY
SSO
URE
USO
UYG
VFI
XLB
XLE
XLF
XLI
U.S. equity markets continued a bit of its manic depression on Wednesday as traders apparently felt that reports surrounding banks not requiring further TARP funds was encouraging. It is hard to say exactly what is the motivation behind this other than current random market volatility. Relatively high average true range conditions at present make spot determination of reversal days a bit tough.
The reversals were legion, but primarily in energy (ARD,CLR,CXG,DNR,EAC,XEC, DPM,COP,PBR,BAS,CLB, DWSN,OII, HP,UNT) and REITs (AMB,AVB,BMR,DEI,HCN, HCP,MAC, PSA,SPG,VNO). The one name that passed the neural net test was an engineering simulation software company (ANSS).
---------Value/Price est.--7 day ATR--%( 7 day ATR)/Close
Note (O): optionable
*Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average volume basis.
(O) ANSS 2.31/1 62.0% 2.07-1.33--------5.16
We are likely in the throws of bottom testing at it could get wild going forward for a few days. Computer systems, as well as energy names, biotech and certain residential REITs are gaining positive momentum. We need to remain vigilant behind the statistics and only take trades that have a decent shot at succeeding. More patience is required, but ultimately it will be rewarded.
Take care,
DBB
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I believe you are probably the best out of the literal hundreds of traders that I have witnessed.
