These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.
For 02/05/2009:
-------------------$INDU---------$SPX-----------$COMPQ
Monthly Momentum---Negative(OS)--Negative(OS)---NegativeOS)
Weekly Momentum----Negative------Negative-------Negative
Daily Momentum-----Negative(OS)--Negative(OS)---Negative
(OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 100,000 shares.
BWX
DBV
EEB
EWK
EWP
GWX
IAI
IEO
IEZ
IGF
ILF
IXC
IYM
IYW
KCE
MOO
MXI
OIH
PRFU
PXJ
ROM
RSX
SLX
TOK
VAW
VGT
VPU
XES
XLE
XOP
U.S. equity markets slumped after ADP employment numbers and information regarding 2009 earnings forecasts from CSCO made institutions and traders unwilling to buy stocks as the session ended. Petroleum issues were the largest group of bullish reversals (ARD,BHI,CLR,CRK,DNR,HAL,UPL,WLL, WMB) along with certain financials (CS, GS,LAX), and transports (DSX, NSC). The problem with pattern analysis is that the patterns are formed on a very long term basis and the price action is all in the lower half of the price bar. Momentum is weak, and the nets apparently did not like it.
-----Value/Price est.--7 day ATR--%( 7 day ATR)/Close
Note (O): optionable
*Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average volume basis.
Nothing today.
That’s it for now. The process of bottoming is complex and it still appears that the bears may be in control of the situation at present. We must be patient, as we have found a few of the stronger sectors (like biotech with GENZ). These will re-emerge with time. Save your capital for those set ups.
Take care,
DBB
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I believe you are probably the best out of the literal hundreds of traders that I have witnessed.
