These articles describe the statistical probabilities of long positions on these equities, based on neural net projections, for the next 5-15 trading days. These are not holy grail methodologies, the road to easy street, or anything else. These projections are the result of screening for technically significant retracement and momentum patterns that have been further screened for value and bullish sector performance. In other words, the projections are for long positions.
For 02/26/2009:
------------------$INDU----------$SPX----------$COMPQ
Monthly Momentum--Negative(OS)---Negative(OS)--Negative(OS)
Weekly Momentum---Negative-------Negative------Negative(OS)
Daily Momentum----Positive-------Positive------Positive
(OS) means oversold and (OB) means overbought. The value to price estimate (it is not a guarantee, only a cash flow based estimate) can be defined loosely as a multiplier of price. A number higher than one means the stock is undervalued using this model and a number less than one means the stock is overvalued.
Index and ETF I-shares Bullish Reversals (Note: to look up quotes for the Dow Indexes (starting with DJ or DW, add a dollar sign. No dollar sign is required for the ETFs beginning with other letters.) Today’s list includes only those ETFs with a 50-day moving average of daily volume greater than 10,000,000 shares.
UUP
PZA
U.S. equity markets basically fell apart when the Treasury Department announced “stress tests” for banks, probably raising fears of bank failures again and keeping traders glued to the sidelines, erasing the gains of the previous day, which for the most part resulted only in an inside day on Tuesday. The important reversals were in energy (ETP, KMR, OKS, SJT, and WLL) and gas and electric utilities (ATO, CPL, MIR, and OKE).
Sadly, statistics did not hold up, but if one were to judge retracement patterns, OKS, SJT, and ETP look better than others. I am working on making adjustments to models to handle the wider patterns. These patterns have been working of late, and I have been ignoring them, as I trade on statistics.
-----Value/Price EST. 7 day ATR %( 7 day ATR)/Close
Nothing today.
Note (O): optionable
*Beta greater than 1.5, Volume greater than 1 million shares on a 50-day simple moving average volume basis.
That’s it for now. I am working to rectify wide (in terms of bars) pattern variations that are affecting net statistics. There are selective long opportunities in energy now.
I will continue to watch healthcare, drugs, and select energy as we continue to test bottoms. The inflation trade is likely to return in these issues again shortly, and favorable seasonal factors could kick in also.
Take care,
DBB
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I believe you are probably the best out of the literal hundreds of traders that I have witnessed.
